How mromundset/prediction_market_edge_analysis works
This repository is a collection of independent prediction-market research explorations, not a single trading application. The common workflow is to investigate a pricing hypothesis, obtain market prices and an independent comparison source, then evaluate whether an apparent discrepancy is meaningful or executable. The graph preserves the README’s major strategy branches and the weather market-making prototype. Some subsystems are represented by their exact enclosing directories because their source was not sampled; arrows are limited to documented or sampled interactions.
Main entry points: scan.py Macro Elections Scan · compare_fed.py Fed Venue Comparison · analyze.py Weather Forecast Study · meteor_analysis.py Meteor Rate Study
Components 22
Market Research
- Market Snapshot
strategy_research/scan_markets.py - Lopsided Scan
lopsided_market_scan/fetch_lopsided.py - Internal Arb Scan
internal_arb_exploration/scan_internal_arb.py - Consistency Scan
cross_market_consistency_exploration/scan_v2.py - Crypto Ladder Scan
crypto_ladder_d10_exploration/scan.py
Venue Comparisons
- Macro Elections Scan
kalshi_macro_elections_exploration/scan.py - Fed Venue Comparison
kalshi_cross_venue_exploration/compare_fed.py - Venue Overlap
kalshi_cross_venue_exploration - Crypto Probability Study
crypto_deribit_edge_exploration/advanced_analysis.py
Physical Forecasts
- Weather Forecast Study
weather_forecast_edge_exploration/analyze.py - Meteor Rate Study
meteor_strike_edge_exploration/meteor_analysis.py - Weather Forecast Fetch
weather_forecast_edge_exploration/fetch_data.py
Market Making
- Maker Feasibility Study
weather_mm_feasibility_exploration/analyze_mm.py - Kalshi Data Client
weather_mm_feasibility_exploration/system/kalshi_client.py - Market Recorder
weather_mm_feasibility_exploration/system/recorder.py - Quote Simulator
weather_mm_feasibility_exploration/system/simulator.py
Other components
- Researcher
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
- Deribit
- NASA/CNEOS
- Weather Sources
Connections 30
- Researcher → Market Snapshot: runs scan
- Market Snapshot → Polymarket: fetches markets
- Researcher → Lopsided Scan: runs scan
- Lopsided Scan → Polymarket: fetches markets
- Researcher → Internal Arb Scan: runs scan
- Internal Arb Scan → Polymarket: fetches books
- Researcher → Consistency Scan: runs scan
- Consistency Scan → Polymarket: fetches markets
- Researcher → Crypto Ladder Scan: runs scan
- Crypto Ladder Scan → Polymarket: fetches books
- Researcher → Macro Elections Scan: runs scan
- Macro Elections Scan → Kalshi: fetches markets
- Macro Elections Scan → Polymarket: searches markets
- Researcher → Fed Venue Comparison: runs comparison
- Fed Venue Comparison → Kalshi: fetches markets
- Fed Venue Comparison → Polymarket: fetches events
- Researcher → Crypto Probability Study: runs analysis
- Crypto Probability Study → Deribit: uses options data
- Researcher → Weather Forecast Study: runs analysis
- Weather Forecast Study → Kalshi: evaluates market prices
- Weather Forecast Study → Weather Sources: evaluates forecasts
- Researcher → Weather Forecast Fetch: runs fetch
- Weather Forecast Fetch → Weather Sources: fetches forecasts
- Researcher → Meteor Rate Study: runs analysis
- Meteor Rate Study → Polymarket: fetches price history
- Meteor Rate Study → NASA/CNEOS: fetches record
- Researcher → Maker Feasibility Study: runs analysis
- Kalshi Data Client → Kalshi: reads public data
- Market Recorder → Kalshi Data Client: uses client
- Quote Simulator → Kalshi Data Client: uses client