How bcc-phm/spatial-bayesian-dlnm-extreme-heat-and-cold-modelling- works
This repository is an R analysis of ward-level temperature-related mortality in Birmingham. Its principal workflow converts gridded temperatures and registered deaths into ward-level analysis inputs, fits a spatial Bayesian distributed-lag model, derives ward-specific minimum-mortality-temperature estimates, and calculates attributable mortality. Separate DPH scripts support report-period exposure, attribution, baseline mortality, heatwave analysis, and static figures. The README documents these capabilities and the main workflow; source excerpts were unavailable, so uncertain implementation links are omitted.
Main entry points: figs Analysis figures · 04_plot_inla_res.R INLA results plots · 01_raster_to_time_series_ward.R Ward temperature series · 03_bayesain_spatial_dnlm.R Spatial Bayesian DLNM
Components 16
Exposure data
- Ward temperature series
R/01_raster_to_time_series_ward.R
Mortality modelling
- Daily ward deaths
R/02_all_cause_mortality_process_ward.R - Spatial Bayesian DLNM
R/03_bayesain_spatial_dnlm.R - INLA results plots
R/04_plot_inla_res.R
Attribution analysis
- Excess mortality
R/05_excess_mort_attr.R - Baseline mortality
R/08_baseline_mort_ward.R
DPH reporting
- DPH temperature series
R/06a_DPH_raster_to_time_series_ward_2026.R - DPH MMT draws
R/06_DPH_mmt_draws_0_3.R - DPH attribution
R/07_DPH_efficient_excess_mort_attr.R - Heatwave excess deaths
R/09_DPH_heatwave_em2026.R - DPH static graphs
R/10_DPH_report_static_graphs.R
Other components
- HadUK-Grid
- Ward boundaries
- BCC death register
- ONS population
- Analysis figures
figs
Connections 17
- HadUK-Grid → Ward temperature series: provides raster
- Ward boundaries → Ward temperature series: defines wards
- HadUK-Grid → DPH temperature series: provides raster
- Ward boundaries → DPH temperature series: defines wards
- BCC death register → Daily ward deaths: provides deaths
- ONS population → Excess mortality: rate denominator
- Ward temperature series → Spatial Bayesian DLNM: provides exposure
- Daily ward deaths → Spatial Bayesian DLNM: provides outcomes
- Spatial Bayesian DLNM → INLA results plots: provides results
- INLA results plots → Excess mortality: provides MMT estimates
- DPH temperature series → DPH attribution: provides exposure
- DPH MMT draws → DPH attribution: provides MMT draws
- Excess mortality → Analysis figures: writes plots
- INLA results plots → Analysis figures: writes plots
- DPH attribution → Analysis figures: writes plots
- Heatwave excess deaths → Analysis figures: writes plots
- DPH static graphs → Analysis figures: writes plots